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Consumer Purchase Journeys and Decision-Making

Novema UK, August 2026

The UK residential Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) market was estimated to be worth approximately £1.6 billion in 2025, with growth of around 4–5% CAGR forecast to 2030. This estimate is based on expenditure by UK households on new installations, replacement and renovation, and upgrades of heating, ventilation and air-conditioning systems.

The market is fundamentally a replacement and retrofit market rather than a new-build market. The main areas of residential HVAC expenditure in 2025 are estimated to be:

• Boiler replacements: c. £850 million
• Heat-pump installations: c. £300 million
• Residential air conditioning: c. £250 million
• Ventilation: c. £100 million
• Controls and accessories: c. £100 million

Gas boilers remain the dominant heating technology in UK homes, installed in approximately 23–24 million homes, representing around 75–80% of the installed base. Electric heating is estimated to be present in approximately 2.5–3.0 million homes (8–10%), while oil heating accounts for around 1.5–2.0 million homes, particularly in rural and off-grid areas. The remaining 1.5–2.6 million homes use communal heating, solid fuel and newer technologies such as heat pumps.

This installed base is important because it helps explain why replacement remains the principal driver of residential HVAC expenditure. For many households, the decision to upgrade their heating system is not made proactively but is usually triggered by equipment failure or deteriorating performance.

Understanding the consumer purchase journey

For HVAC manufacturers and brand owners, understanding the consumer journey from initial trigger through to installation, upgrade or renovation is critical.

Because of the technical complexity of HVAC products, almost all purchase journeys involve a professional at some point. Depending on the technology and circumstances, this could be a heating engineer, plumber, HVAC company, specialist installer, energy adviser or retrofit professional.

The involvement of these professionals has created a substantial ecosystem around the residential HVAC market. This includes energy companies, manufacturer-affiliated installers, independent boiler companies, online boiler retailers, specialist HVAC companies, comparison websites and recommendation platforms.

Increasingly, some boiler companies, energy companies and third parties offer an end-to-end proposition, covering the entire journey:

The importance of each stage, however, varies considerably according to the technology being purchased.

Journey	Typical trigger	First point of contact	Decision complexity
Boiler replacement	Boiler failure, poor performance or age	Existing heating engineer, plumber or boiler company	Low–medium
Heat-pump conversion	High energy bills, environmental concerns, grants, renovation or replacement of old heating	Internet/advice → heat-pump specialist or MCS installer	High
Air conditioning / ventilation	Heatwaves, overheating, home-office or bedroom comfort, renovation	Internet → AC installer or HVAC company	Medium
Whole-house retrofit	Major renovation, high energy bills, EPC requirements, property purchase or decarbonisation	Energy adviser, retrofit professional, architect or installer	Very high

Boiler replacement: predominantly a forced purchase

The purchase journey for a replacement boiler is often characterised by a “forced trigger”. Many homeowners do not actively plan to replace their boiler; instead, they wait until it breaks down or becomes sufficiently unreliable to justify replacement.

However, complete failure is not always necessary. Homeowners may respond to a series of warning signs, including:

• Increasingly frequent breakdowns and repairs
• Poor heating performance
• Problems with hot water
• Rising energy consumption
• Increasing noise or other signs of deterioration
• Difficulty obtaining replacement parts
• Advice from an engineer that the next repair may be uneconomic

The heating engineer can therefore play a critical role in creating the replacement trigger. An engineer who advises that a boiler is becoming unreliable, obsolete or uneconomic to repair can effectively accelerate the purchase decision.

Even when a boiler is inefficient, many consumers continue to use it for as long as possible. Replacement is frequently deferred until the perceived cost and inconvenience of keeping the existing system exceed the cost and disruption of replacing it.

This has important implications for HVAC manufacturers and brand owners: being accessible / reachable at the point of failure and having strong installer relationships can be more important than simply generating consumer awareness.

Changing technology: the heat-pump journey

The purchase journey is substantially different when consumers are changing technology, particularly when moving from a gas boiler to a heat pump.

Heat-pump adoption is generally more planned and considered because installation requires property assessment, system design and, potentially, changes to radiators, insulation, hot-water systems and other elements of the home.

The Energy Saving Trust recommends a home assessment and heat-demand calculation before selecting a heat-pump system.

Consequently, homeowners are particularly likely to consider a heat pump when they are already undertaking other work, such as renovating or extending the property, replacing radiators / installing underfloor heating, improving insulation, etc.

This creates an opportunity to bundle multiple disruptive works into a single renovation project, making the transition to a heat pump more attractive.

A more information-intensive purchase

The heat-pump purchase journey is also different because the technology is less familiar to consumers and cannot simply be treated as a like-for-like replacement for a boiler.

Consumers therefore tend to use a wider range of information sources. According to Which?, consumers researching heat pumps consult multiple sources, including:

• 52% – energy companies
• 49% – energy/heating advice websites
• 44% – heat-pump installer websites
• 40% – government websites

The journey therefore tends to progress from general information gathering → technology understanding → property suitability → installer selection → system design → quotation → installation.

Landlords can follow a different journey

Residential landlords have a somewhat different customer journey. Their triggers are more likely to be tenant complaints, regulatory requirements, EPC considerations, future-proofing and the desire to improve the property’s rental attractiveness.

The timing of improvements can also be influenced by the void period between tenants, when renovation or heating upgrades can be undertaken without disrupting occupancy.

The Government has also announced plans for a higher energy-efficiency standard in the private rented sector, with a 1 October 2030 compliance date under the new framework. This is likely to increase the importance of energy-efficiency considerations in landlords’ future heating and retrofit decisions.

THE INSTALLER BECOMES THE KEY DECISION-MAKER

Once a homeowner moves from general research to actively considering a heat pump, the installer becomes the central adviser and decision-maker within the purchase journey.

Consumers typically identify potential installers through:

• Existing or trusted tradespeople
• Recommendations from friends and family
• Online searches
• Customer reviews
• Certified installer directories
• Manufacturer recommendations

The consumer’s earlier online research therefore plays an important role in determining which installers they ultimately approach.

The Energy Saving Trust recommends using the MCS installer-finder and obtaining quotations from at least three certified installers. This reinforces the importance of installer visibility, reputation and credibility at the point when consumers move from research to purchase.

WHAT DETERMINES THE FINAL CHOICE?

Different factors influence the final purchase decision for boilers and heat pumps.

For boiler replacement, speed and availability can be decisive. When a boiler has failed and the household has no heating or hot water, consumers are often highly motivated to restore service quickly. Existing relationships with trusted installers can therefore be extremely valuable.

For straightforward boiler replacements, consumers may simply choose a tradesperson they already know. Where they do not have an established relationship, online reviews, recommendations, customer references and availability become increasingly important.

Heat pumps require greater reassurance

Heat pumps represent a much more complex purchase. Technical competence and confidence in the installer become particularly important because the installer must assess the suitability of the property and design a system around its specific heat demand.

Price remains an important consideration, but comparing quotations is more difficult than with a conventional boiler replacement. Installers may recommend different systems, specifications or approaches to heat-demand calculations, making it difficult for consumers to determine whether they are comparing like-for-like propositions.

This creates an important role for education, demonstration and reassurance.

Nesta research illustrates this particularly well. Following a visit to a real heat-pump installation, the proportion of consumers who said they understood likely installation costs increased from 36% to 67%.

The implication is significant: seeing a working installation can help turn abstract interest into purchase confidence.

AIR CONDITIONING FOLLOWS A DIFFERENT PATH

Residential air conditioning has a different consumer journey again.

The market is more retail-led and potentially more spontaneous, particularly for portable and personal cooling products. Consumers can research products online, compare prices and specifications, and in some cases install the equipment themselves.

Fixed or split-system air conditioning is more complex. It normally requires professional assessment and installation and therefore follows a purchase journey closer to that of heat pumps.

This distinction is becoming increasingly blurred because air-to-air heat pumps can provide both heating and cooling. As consumer awareness of these systems grows, the traditional boundaries between the heating and air-conditioning markets are likely to become less distinct.

IMPLICATIONS FOR HVAC MANUFACTURERS AND BRANDS

The key implication is that there is no single residential HVAC purchase journey. The route to purchase depends heavily on whether the consumer is replacing an existing system, changing technology or undertaking a wider renovation.

For manufacturers and brand owners, this means that different strategies are required:

• Boilers: win the installer and be available when failure occurs.
• Heat pumps: educate the consumer, build confidence and develop strong installer networks.
• Air conditioning: capture consumers during online research while ensuring strong installer availability for fixed systems.
• Whole-house retrofit: establish relationships with advisers, architects, retrofit professionals and other influencers earlier in the decision-making process.

Ultimately, the professional remains central to the residential HVAC purchase journey. While consumers increasingly begin their research online, the final specification, recommendation and installation are still heavily influenced by the installer. For HVAC manufacturers, therefore, consumer marketing alone is unlikely to be sufficient; success requires a coordinated strategy across consumers, installers, advisers, retailers and other channel influencers.

KEY STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS FOR HVAC MANUFACTURERS AND BRAND OWNERS

Based on the consumer journeys outlined by Novema, the central implication for HVAC manufacturers and brand owners is that the winning strategy is not simply to make a better HVAC product. It is to control more of the journey from trigger → research → recommendation → specification → installation → after-sales service.

STRATEGIC AREA	STRATEGIC AREA	KEY IMPLICATION	WHAT MANUFACTURERS/BRANDS SHOULD DO
1	Product strategy	Products need to be easier to specify, install and operate	Design for installer simplicity, modularity, compatibility and ease of commissioning
2	Product portfolio	The market is moving from individual products towards integrated home-energy solutions	Develop connected heating, cooling, ventilation and controls ecosystems
3	Retrofit	Replacement/renovation is the core residential opportunity	Design products specifically for retrofit rather than focusing primarily on new-build
4	Heat pumps	Consumer adoption is constrained by complexity and uncertainty	Offer complete solutions, including system design tools, sizing support and installer assistance
5	Installer strategy	Installers are arguably the most important influence on final purchase	Build deeper installer networks, training, accreditation and loyalty programmes
6	Consumer strategy	Consumers increasingly research before approaching an installer	Own the information journey through digital content, calculators, configurators and demonstrations
7	Service proposition	Installation is only one part of the customer relationship	Develop warranties, maintenance, monitoring, servicing and upgrade propositions
8	Channel strategy	Different technologies require different routes to market	Tailor channels for boilers, heat pumps, AC, ventilation and whole-house retrofit
9	Business development	Growth will increasingly come from cross-selling rather than standalone equipment	Target existing installed bases with upgrade, controls, ventilation and replacement opportunities
10	Market intelligence	Manufacturers need to understand the entire decision ecosystem	Track homeowners, installers, retailers, advisers, energy companies and other influencers