By, Novema UK, August 2026
The UK eating-out market is navigating a complex landscape, caught between consumer resilience and significant economic pressures. The last two years have seen a definitive shift towards value-driven and convenient options, particularly premium fast food, while the outlook suggests these trends will solidify and evolve further over the next two years.
Spend: Resilience Under Pressure
While consumers remain cautious, spending on eating out has shown surprising resilience. In April 2025, spending growth on eating and drinking out reached 6.7%, a 16-month high, driven in part by higher menu prices. The average consumer spend also increased to £115.67 per month by mid-2025, though this partly reflects inflation.
However, this is set against a backdrop of rising costs that are squeezing operators. Food and beverage prices rose by 4.5% year-on-year by the end of 2025, with fast-food prices increasing even more sharply at 7.7%. These cost pressures are reshaping the market.
Cuisine: Traditional Favourites and the Rise of Premium Chicken
Consumer preferences are showing a clear divide. On one hand, classic, comforting dishes remain popular. Burgers, chips, and other indulgent pub classics maintained a strong following in late 2024.
On the other hand, there is a strong appetite for global cuisines, with 40% of consumers seeking out international flavours when they eat out. The most notable trend, however, is the explosive growth of chicken-focused fast food. Chains like Popeyes and Wingstop have seen significant footfall increases (5.9% for chicken restaurants) as consumers “trade down” to premium fast food that feels like a better value treat than a casual dining meal.
Frequency & Day of Week: The Fragmented Week
Consumers are becoming more selective about when they eat out. While overall frequency increased for a period in mid-2025, a significant portion of the public (35% in early 2025) intends to cut back on dining out to reduce frequency.
The traditional working week has been upended by hybrid work:
- Midweek Growth: Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays are seeing a resurgence in dining out as social engagement becomes more integrated with hybrid work patterns.
- The “New Friday”: Sunday has gained prominence as a day to dine out, as the pressure of a Monday morning commute has lessened for many.
- Weekend Dominance: Saturdays remain the biggest day for dining out, busier than before the pandemic, while Friday nights have become notably “tougher” for many operators.
The Dine-in vs. Delivery Balance
The pendulum is swinging back towards dining out. The explosive growth in delivery and takeaway sales seen during the pandemic has decelerated significantly. In December 2024, growth in at-home sales for leading restaurant groups slowed to just 1.9% year-on-year. This suggests consumers are increasingly valuing the social and experiential aspects of a meal in a restaurant that delivery cannot replicate.
Chains vs. Independents: A Widening Gap
The current environment is tough for independent restaurants, which face higher operating costs without the economies of scale of larger chains. Full-service restaurants, many of which are independent, are under significant pressure, with visits falling. Chains are better positioned to weather the storm through loyalty programs and greater negotiating power with suppliers.
OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 2 YEARS (2026-2027)
The outlook is for a market characterised by a “barbell” effect, where success is found at the premium or value ends, and the middle is squeezed. Key trends to watch include:
- Growth for QSR, Pressure on Casual Dining: The trend of consumers trading down to Quick Service Restaurants (QSR) and fast-casual concepts is expected to continue as a long-term structural shift.
- Redefining Value: “Value” is no longer just about the lowest price. It’s a blend of quality, experience, and convenience. Operators will need to use strategies like “barbell pricing” (offering both entry-level and premium options) and effective loyalty schemes to win over consumers.
- Multi-Channel is Essential: Consumers expect to interact with a brand across dine-in, delivery, click-and-collect, and other formats. Flexibility is key.
- Experience as a Differentiator: The “default” midweek meal out is less common. Consumers are being more deliberate, seeking “experience-led” occasions that feel worthwhile. Niche and authentic concepts offering a memorable experience are expected to gain traction.
In essence, the UK eating-out market is moving towards a more fragmented and competitive future where agility, a clear value proposition, and a strong in-restaurant experience are paramount for success.
